As U.S.–China trade tensions heat up once again, investors are scrambling to figure out how to protect their portfolios from the fallout. With potential tariffs, export bans, and tech restrictions back in the headlines, the market is starting to price in risk — and fast.
So where do you hide when the world’s second-largest economy becomes a liability?
You go local. You go defensive. You go low-China-exposure.
Here are two stocks that fit the bill — and just had a wave of bullish options activity.
1. Progressive Corp (PGR): Boring? Good. Profitable? Even Better
- What they do: Auto and property insurance in the U.S.
- China exposure: Virtually none.
- Spot Price (May 6): $282.16
- Flow Score: 42.26 → Very High Conviction
- Bias: Bullish — with $582K in call activity vs. $309K in puts
Key Options Action:
- $77.5K stacked at the $275 CALL (May 16)
- Heavy clustering near $280 suggests magnet zone
- Short-term expiry interest is heating up fast
Takeaway: Institutions are betting on continued upside — and in a risk-off environment, insurance is often a safe harbor. With earnings behind us, the fresh volume suggests new long positioning is underway.
2. Waste Management (WM): The Trade War-Proof Utility
- What they do: Trash, recycling, and landfill services across the U.S.
- China exposure: Basically zero.
- Spot Price (May 6): $234.79
- Flow Score: 19.67 → Moderately Bullish
- Bias: Bullish — $126K in calls vs. just $20K in puts
Key Flow Highlights:
- $47K at $200 CALL and $27K at $240 CALL (May 16)
- Puts at $230 look like weak hedges, not real conviction
- OTM aggression score: 10 — traders are reaching for upside
Takeaway: This isn’t a growth rocket — it’s a cash cow. And based on the flow, big money is quietly getting defensive without giving up on upside.
Why This Matters Now
If you’re worried that trade war headlines could tank tech or consumer names, you’re not alone. Names like Nvidia, Apple, and Tesla are directly in the blast zone.
But WM and PGR? They don’t care about tariffs. They don’t need Chinese chips. They just make money — reliably.
TL;DR: When China becomes a threat, go boring and local. Progressive and Waste Management just flashed strong call flow, suggesting institutions are rotating into safety — with upside.